Thursday, September 7, 2023
understand the power sector
#powersector
Want to understand the power sector and how to pick power stocks from the basic? 👇
P.S. - If you can’t click the link below, save this number first or copy paste the link in your browser.
https://twitter.com/kirtanshahcfp/status/1690209090558124032?s=46&t=AushGny_I_JiC4eBIfL4Yw
Wednesday, September 6, 2023
All 50 stocks currently in the Nifty 50 index paid dividends in FY23,
*Dividend Trivia*
#dividend
#stockmarkets
All 50 stocks currently in the Nifty 50 index paid dividends in FY23, which is a rare occurrence.
1. Reliance - ₹9
2. TCS - ₹48 + ₹67
3. HDFC Bank - ₹19 (HDFC - ₹44)
4. ICICI Bank - ₹8
5. Infosys - ₹34
6. HUL - ₹39
7. ITC - ₹12.75 + ₹2.75
8. SBI - ₹8
9. Bharti Airtel - ₹4
10. Bajaj Finance - ₹30
11. L&T - ₹24
12. Kotak Bank- ₹1.5
13. HCL Tech - ₹48
14. Asian Paints - ₹25.65
15. Maruti Suzuki - ₹90
16. Axis Bank - ₹1
17. Adani Enterprises - ₹1.2
18. Titan - ₹10
19. Sun Pharm - ₹11.5
20. Bajaj Finserv - ₹0.8
21. UltraTech Cement - ₹38
22. ONGC - ₹11.25
23. NTPC - ₹7.25
24. Tata Motors - ₹2
25. Wipro - ₹1
26. Nestle - ₹220 (₹27*)
27. JSW Steel - ₹3.4
28. M&M - ₹16.25
29. Power Grid - ₹14.75
30. Adani Ports - ₹5
31. LTI Mindtree - ₹60
32. Tata Steel - ₹3.6
33. Coal India - ₹24.25
34. HDFC Life - ₹1.9
35. SBI Life - ₹2.5
36. Bajaj Auto - ₹140
37. Tech Mahindra - ₹32 + ₹12
38. Grasim - ₹10
39. IndusInd Bank - ₹14
40. Britannia - ₹72
41. Hindalco - ₹3
42. Cipla - ₹8.5
43. Divi's Labs - ₹30
44. Eicher Motors - ₹37
45. Dr. Reddy's Labs - ₹40
46. Tata Consumer - ₹8.45
47. BPCL - ₹4
48. Apollo Hospitals - ₹15
49. Hero MotoCorp - ₹100
50. UPL - ₹10
Services sector activity expands again in August even as PMI falls to 60.1
#servicessector
#PMI
Services sector activity expands again in August even as PMI falls to 60.1.
India's services activity continued to expand in August but the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the sector fell to 60.1, according to data released by S&P Global on September 5. At 60.1, the August services PMI is well below the over-13-year high of 62.3 posted in July.
However, it remains significantly above the key level of 50 that separates expansion in activity from a contraction. In fact, the services PMI has now spent 25 consecutive months above 50.
The PMI is a survey-based indicator based on the responses of around 400 service companies. The sectors it covers includes non-retail consumer services, transport, information, communication, finance, insurance, real estate, and business services. An index is calculated for each sector, all of which are then combined to give an overall PMI figure.
Given that the PMI measures change in activity from the previous month and is seasonally adjusted, it is seen as a good indicator of the momentum in economic activity. Further, it is the most immediately available data point – PMI for any given month, both for the services and manufacturing sectors, is released in the first week of the subsequent month.
In comparison, official data on economic activity – such as the index of industrial production or the index of eight core industries – are released with a lag of a month or more. PMI data is seen as a lead indicator of the state of the economy and policymakers often rely on it to inform their decisions.
The latest services PMI data comes three days after S&P Global said the manufacturing PMI increased to a three-month high of 58.6 in August from 57.7 in July. As a result, the composite PMI - which is a combination of the manufacturing and services indices - fell to 60.9 from 61.9 in July.
Friday, August 4, 2023
US debt: What does the loss of a triple A rating mean
#USDebt
#rating
#financialhealth
US debt: What does the loss of a triple A rating mean?
Fitch has downgraded its credit rating for the United States, becoming the second of the top-three ratings agencies to strip the country of a top AAA rating. The impact upon the world's top economy is likely to be just symbolic, at least immediately.
*_What is a AAA credit rating?_*
The AAA or "triple-A" rating is the highest rating that an agency gives to a country, locality or company concerning its ability to repay its debts.
The top three global ratings agencies: S&P Global, Fitch and Moody's, use the same system of letters, ranging from a top AAA rating through B, C and D for payment defaults.
The ratings are intended to reflect the economic and/or financial health of a borrower. For countries, the agencies look at economic growth, tax revenue, government spending, deficits and debt levels to determining their ratings.
These ratings are intended for use by investors to guide them in their investment choices.
The lower a rating, the more investors are likely to demand higher interest payments from a borrower to compensate for the risk of not getting repaid.
*_Who still has a triple-A?_*
Only a small group of nations have a triple-A rating from all three major ratings agencies: Australia, Denmark, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Singapore and Switzerland.
Several others have an AAA from one or two of the agencies. That is the case with the United States, which still has a triple-A from Moody's. S&P stripped the United States of its AAA in 2011.
Canada and the European Union are in a similar situation.
*_Who has lost their triple-A?_*
In Europe, several countries including France lost theirs in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis.
For France, "it was a leap into the unknown," the founder of the Global Sovereign Advisory consultancy, said earlier this year of the country's downgrades in 2012 and 2013.
But the county "didn't lose investors" then or when Fitch lowered its rating in March when the country was in the midst of a wave of strikes over a contentious pension reform.
Fitch's downgrade of the United States was the first time it has changed its rating for Washington since it began rating it in 1994.
Moody's has not changed its rating for the United States since 1949.
What are the consequences? The loss of a triple-A rating is above all symbolic: it sends a strong signal to the markets. In this case, the United States is keeping a very strong AA+ rating and the downgrade will unlikely cause investors to flee as the country still enjoys the confidence of markets and its debt is a critical part of the global financial system.
The yield -- or interest rate -- on US 10-year Treasuries (bonds) which are the reference for the market, rose above 4.0 percent for the third time this year just before Fitch's announcement, and dipped immediately following it.
They have been approaching that level as the US Federal Reserve raises its interest rates, and the dollar rose slightly against the euro on Wednesday in a sign of the greenback's role as a safe haven in times of uncertainty.
Global stock markets were lower, but only moderately so.
Fitch itself intimated that there would likely be little immediate consequence from its downgrade for the United States.
In explaining its decision, Fitch noted "the US dollar is the world's preeminent reserve currency, which gives the government extraordinary financing flexibility."
Analysts agree that there is unlikely to be a significant impact.
"Despite the poor eye candy and initial surprise, the recent US downgrade will unlikely cause a significant Treasuries sell-off or prompt a major shift in investor behaviour mainly because investors experienced a similar downgrade from S&P in 2011 and came away unscathed," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.
Analysts at Capital Economics agreed there would be little impact on the US bond markets, and expressed surprise about the timing of the Fitch downgrade "when the economy now appears poised to pull off the seemingly impossible trick of bringing inflation back to target without triggering a recession".
While it noted the federal deficit is set rise to nearly six percent of GDP and interest costs on government debt set to double in the coming years, Capital Economics said that a lot depends on whether the Fed can soon begin to lower interest rates.
If it can't "then the debt dynamics could quickly become unsustainable," it warned.
Wednesday, August 2, 2023
India's manufacturing PMI edges down to 57.7 in July
*India's manufacturing PMI edges down to 57.7 in July*
India's manufacturing sector activity continued to expand in July compared to June, although the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged down marginally to 57.7, data released on August 1 showed.
The manufacturing PMI stood at 57.8 in June. The gauge of manufacturing sector activity in July is above the key level of 50 - which separates expansion in activity from contraction - for the 25th month in a row.
"The Indian manufacturing sector showed little sign of losing growth momentum in July as production lines continued to motor on the back of strong new order growth," said Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
"All in all, the Indian manufacturing sector has maintained its position as one of the star performers globally, bucking the trend of demand weakness seen in other parts of the world," Harker added.
The July PMI figure marks another solid start to a quarter for India's manufacturing sector, with the index having averaged 57.9 in April-June and 55.7 in the first quarter of 2023.
In July, S&P Global's survey reported "widespread" improvement in demand, which resulted in "another marked expansion" in new manufacturing orders. Further, export orders rose the most since November, especially from the US, Bangladesh, and Nepal. On the whole, the rise in new orders led to the manufacturing sector's output increasing substantially in July, although the rate at which it rose was the least in three months.
Higher orders pushed up employment, with S&P Global describing the pace of job creation in July as "solid" and "broadly in line" with what was seen in May and June.
On the prices front, there was mixed news. While input cost inflation hit a nine-month high in July, it was lower than the series average. As a result, selling prices rose solidly, albeit the least in three months, S&P Global said.
The robust PMI number will be welcomed by policymakers, especially as it comes a day after commerce ministry data showed India's core sector growth hit a five-month high of 8.2 percent in June. While growth has been outperforming expectations - the GDP clocked a growth rate of 6.1 percent in January-March, a full percentage point more than was forecast - inflation has surged in recent months on the back of surging vegetable prices. Such has been the price jump among key food items that economists expect headline retail inflation to rocket past the upper bound of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance band of 2-6 percent in July.
As such, the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is seen leaving the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 percent on August 10 for the third meeting in a row.
"We expect the recent surge in perishable food prices to reverse in Q3 FY23-24 (October-December). Already, the rise in retail tomato prices is starting to slow. Still, we think the RBI will sound cautious, given the evidence of transmission of price volatility across vegetables. This offers a further reason for the central bank to remain on hold," Rahul Bajoria, managing director and head of EM Asia (ex-China) Economics at Barclays, said in a note on August 1.
Tuesday, August 1, 2023
Monday, July 31, 2023
FPI buying nosedives 94% week-on-week; are dollars taking a “U” turn on Dalal Street?
#fpi
#FDI
#foreignportfolioinvestors
#markets
FPI buying nosedives 94% week-on-week; are dollars taking a “U” turn on Dalal Street?
The relentless buying by foreign portfolio investors triggered a sharp rally in Indian equities and took benchmark indices to all-time highs. However, the buying frenzy among the big bulls seems to be ebbing.
FPIs net invested a mere Rs 468 crore in domestic markets during the week ended July 28, compared to Rs 7,804 crore in the preceding week.
Benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 registered their first weekly loss after four consecutive gains, as investors booked partial profits.
But on a monthly basis, inflows from FPIs were positive for the fourth consecutive month in July. They net invested over $4 billion in July, but this was lower than the over $6 billion inflows in June.
Since March this year, FPIs have net invested nearly $19 billion in Indian equities, which is more than the $18 billion of outflows witnessed in the whole of 2022.
*_Trend Reversal?_*
After a relentless run for four months, data indicators do suggest that the big bulls may feel fatigue and this could result in rangebound trade in the near term.
In the last 33 years, there have been 23 occasions, excluding the current set of 5 months, where the index has seen 5 straight months of gains, Sriram Velayudhan of IIFL Securities pointed out.
“Interestingly, the probability of successive months with positive returns gradually reduces as we enter the 6/7/8 months set. In short, based on empirical evidence, we may be now venturing into a territory where momentum is likely to take a breather,” he said.
The trading strategy of FPIs hinges a lot on the movement of the dollar index. In July, the index fell over 1%, and the movement in the coming sessions will be closely tracked.
FPIs have been net investors in automobiles, financials, capital goods, real estate and FMCG stocks in the past 2-3 months, and one needs to see if this trend continues.
Tuesday, July 4, 2023
US Stocks Close Higher on Coattails of Tesla Rally: Markets Wrap
#USStocks
#globalmarkets
US Stocks Close Higher on Coattails of Tesla Rally: Markets Wrap
US stocks shook off warnings about cooling growth and data showing a slowdown in manufacturing to edge higher in subdued trading ahead of the Independence Day holiday.
In a shorted session that ended at 1 p.m. Monday in New York, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.1%, led by Tesla Inc. The electric-car maker jumped 6.9% after it reported record quarterly sales, helping lift shares of rivals and battery suppliers. Bank stocks, including Bank of America Corp., climbed. The Nasdaq 100 Index advanced 0.2%, holding onto gains after notching its best-ever first half of a year.
Investors are tempering expectations for stocks in the second half of the year after strong gains so far. While central banks have kept up their hawkish rhetoric, signs of moderating US inflation have fueled big gains across technology shares.
Still, if an economic slump fails to materialize and political crises can be averted inflation could bottom out at 3% before resuming a climb, according to Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research. That could mean more interest rate increases.
“If the inflation rate bottoms at three and starts drifting higher, the Fed’s going to find this unacceptable, and that two rate hikes that we have priced in for the rest of the year will happen, if not three,” Bianco said.
The manufacturing sector painted a grim picture as US factory activity fell to its weakest level in more than three years. Production and new orders data also suggested a pullback.
Traders will be looking to the upcoming earnings season and additional data, such as Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, for clues on the health of the economy.
“Whether the FOMC has one, two, or zero hikes remaining in its tightening campaign will be a function of the incoming data,” said Ian Lyngen, a strategist at BMO Capital Markets. He expects this week’s incoming data to have more impact on the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision than July’s.
“The Fed is on a glide path to another hike barring a dramatic shift lower in the realized data and/or a sharp tightening in financial conditions,” he wrote in a note.
Despite the positive start to the year for equities, there are signs of cracks beneath the surface. The US Treasury yield-curve inversion intensified, indicating investors expect Fed policy to rein in future growth. The two-year note’s yield briefly exceeded the 10-year rate by as much as 110.8 basis points, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“With both global and US stocks more than 20% above their October 2022 lows and a more challenging second-half outlook, we believe investors should position for more lackluster stock market performance through the remainder of the year,” Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, said.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, global market strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. said “stocks have done well in the first half because a US recession didn’t happen.”
The tech trade, he added, has turned into “a pain trade for institutional investors, causing them to capitulate. This first-half back drop creates vulnerabilities for the second half as it means if a US recession happens, there would be a rather abrupt market repricing.”
Meanwhile, US crude prices steadied around $70 a barrel after Saudi Arabia’s state-run news agency said the country will prolong its unilateral oil production cut by one month, keeping a lid on supply even as the market is expected to tighten. Its OPEC+ ally, Russia, also announced fresh curbs on exports.
Also in focus this week will be US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s trip to Beijing, which kicks off on July 6, as the world’s two largest economies look to mend ties after a spate of bilateral tensions.
quick primer on the US Bank Stress Test
#globalmarkets
#USBanks
Global markets have been positive & one of the major reasons have been a good US bank stress test result. If you are not sure of what that is, here’s a quick primer on the US Bank Stress Test
*If you can’t click the link, try saving this number first*
https://twitter.com/kirtanshahcfp/status/1676062974870695936?s=46&t=AushGny_I_JiC4eBIfL4Yw
Monday, July 3, 2023
FPI buying hits 10-month high of Rs 47,148 crore in June; markets rise to record high
#fpi
#markets
FPI buying hits 10-month high of Rs 47,148 crore in June; markets rise to record high*
Amid improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals, June emerged as the best month with strong foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) inflows in the last 10 months. The FPIs pumped in Rs 47,148 crore in Indian equities in June. This would also be the fourth consecutive month where FPIs have continued to end as net buyers in domestic stocks.
"Sustained FPI flows triggered by India's steadily improving macros have taken markets to record highs. The major reason for the sustained FPI flows into India is the reversal in FPI strategy," V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said.
Meanwhile, FPIs' investment stood at Rs 43,838 crore in May, Rs 11,631 crore in April, and Rs 7,936 crore in March. However, FPIs pulled out Rs 5,294 crore in February and Rs 28,852 crore in January. In the first half of 2023, they have pumped Rs 76,407 crore.
"January and February 2023 saw massive flows to China triggered by China's opening up after Covid and expectations of a revival in growth and earnings. The FPI strategy was 'Sell India, Buy China'," Vijayakumar said.
"FPI investment in India in January and February combined was negative Rs 34146 crores. This strategy was based on the view that China is cheap and India is expensive. This strategy proved to be a mistake since the prospects of China deteriorated, and that of India improved. The Chinese economy is struggling and growth is expected to be muted for many years to come," Vijayakumar added.
In the first half of 2023, S&P BSE benchmark Sensex jumped 3,913 points or 6.43% to end at 64,753. The broader NSE Nifty surged 1,084 points or 5.98% higher to end at 19,189.
Meanwhile, oil prices also tanked and remained below $75 a barrel in June and were on course for a fourth consecutive quarter of losses amid concerns over sluggish global economic activity and fuel demand.
"India's macros are steadily improving, and GDP and corporate earnings growth have the potential to improve further from here. So FPIs have reversed their strategy to 'Buy India, Sell China'. FPIs have invested Rs 47,148 crores in June on top of the Rs 43,838 crores in May," he said.
Vijayakumar further suggested, "FPI money is chasing performance and prospects. FPIs continued to invest in financials, automobiles, capital goods, and construction-related stocks."
Going ahead, Vijayakumar said, "Valuations in India are rich, from a short-term perspective. Therefore, even while continuing to invest in India, FPIs are likely to turn a bit cautious, going forward."
Tuesday, June 27, 2023
Monday, June 26, 2023
How Global Central Banks Are Deploying Strategies
How global central banks are deploying completely different strategies 👇
https://twitter.com/fpaedutech/status/1669543534280736769?s=46&t=AushGny_I_JiC4eBIfL4Yw
Sunday, June 25, 2023
Friday, June 23, 2023
India Bets On 3 Gs
#3Gs
#longterm
#foreigninvestments
India bets on 3 Gs to attract long-term foreign investments, says Nilesh Shah of Kotak Mahindra AMC.
Nilesh Shah, Managing Director at Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company is bullish on the manufacturing sector in India.
He mentions that China+1 is pushing global sourcing to other countries including India.
Competitive companies catering to local and global markets will do well in the days, months, quarters and years to come, he feels.
India provides three Gs - better earnings growth, governance and green transformation which is likely to attract long-term FPIs, says Shah with more than 26 years of experience in the mutual fund industry.
*_Do you think US Federal Reserve is done with its rate hike cycle?_*
In our opinion, the rate hike cycle isn’t over in the US. There is a tug-of-war going on between US Fed and the market. Fed Chairman has indicated that there is a high probability of two more rate hikes in the rest of 2023.
The market is expecting one rate hike of 25 bps. Undoubtedly there is a consensus between US Fed and the market that the rate hike cycle isn’t over.
*_One sector where you have a super bullish view for the rest of the financial year, and why?_*
We are bullish on the manufacturing sector in India. China+1 is pushing global sourcing to other countries including India.
Companies which are competitive and cater to local and global markets will do well in the days, months, quarters and years to come.
*_Do you think the foreign investors will turn out to be big net buyers in India this year?_*
In our opinion, FPIs are likely to be the best buyers of Indian equity. The three Gs are likely to attract long-term FPIs.
*_Can India surprise with 7 percent growth numbers in FY24?_*
In our opinion, it is a tall task. With a below-average monsoon staring at us, 7 percent for FY24 is likely to be a very difficult target. It will be nothing sort of a big miracle if we get that growth number.
*_Do you see any possibility of one more rate hike from the RBI in the rest of the calendar year?_*
In our opinion, the RBI is unlikely to raise interest rates in this cycle. They have been proactive in raising rates and taking out liquidity. Their well-timed action is likely to give them elbow room not to raise rates.
*_Is it time to be cautious while picking stocks, considering the market is fairly valued?_*
Caution is always important while investing as is courage. One always has to be cautious while Investing. Caution doesn’t mean not playing the game. Caution means you go to play with appropriate protection like pads, gloves, helmet etc.
*_Any big domestic or global factors that can bring volatility in the equity markets in the next year?_*
There are many factors which are likely to impact the market in the next year. Some of the factors which will have an impact are US Fed Pivot, The RBI Pivot, Central Election 2024, Corporate Results, Ukraine conflict, Energy Prices, Liquidity etc.
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